Forecasts Archives


Most Analyst Forecasts Are Wrong: The iPhone 8 Edition

Tweet Here were some of the headlines, based on financial analyst “checks” and third party data, that came out ahead of Apple’s earnings this week: ‘Anemic’ iPhone 8 demand drags Apple shares lower U.S. buyers favor iPhone 7 over 8: research Don’t Ignore Signs of Tepid iPhone Demand These gloom and doom stories were picked […]

When Market Forecasts Go Bad — IDC, Windows Phone & BlackBerry

Tweet Almost daily there’s a press release or marketing deck touting some analyst firm’s massive figures for anticipated growth in this or that market sector ($X billion, $Y zillion). Most of these are built on assumptions only loosely grounded in reality. These numbers are almost always inflated because nobody gets media attention with moderate growth. […]

Cyber Monday’s $2 Billion in Perspective

Tweet ComScore is out with data trumpeting the single biggest day in US e-commerce history. This year, according to the measurement firm, Cyber Monday sales were just over $2 billion — a new single day record. There are conflicting numbers from various sources about whether there was positive or negative growth this year for the big holiday weekend. […]

Local-Mobile Ad Revs about $1.6 Billion Today

Tweet BIA/Kelsey just published an updated local-mobile ad forecast. The firm says that “U.S. mobile local advertising revenues will reach $4.5 billion in 2014, up from $2.9 billion in 2013.” It also estimates that US local-mobile ad revenue will reach nearly $16 billion in 2018. That projection is probably too aggressive. But more importantly, the […]

E-commerce Will Exceed $210B in 2013, O2O Commerce Still Much Bigger

Tweet Comscore released its Q3 US e-commerce sales estimates this morning. The firm said that e-commerce revenues in the third quarter were $47.4 billion. That means US e-commerce is on track to reach about $210 billion for the full year 2013 (assuming that Q4 e-commerce comes in at around $63 billion). Once again, as people […]

Survey Predicted Big iPhone 5s Demand

Tweet A survey I conducted via Opus Research several days ago correctly predicted the big demand (and eventual sellout) for the iPhone 5s. Around the world today shipping dates have been pushed back for all 5s models, but especially the gold color. The online survey asked 1,508 US adults “Which of the following [handsets] would […]

BIA: Local Media Revs Will Grow about 2%

Tweet Against the backdrop of Pew’s largely negative assessment of the state of the news media (including local newspapers and TV), BIA/Kelsey has put out a new high-level local media forecast. That forecast says that traditional media revenues will decline, while digital media will grow and national/regional advertisers will represent a larger component of revenues. […]

YP Says It’s 2nd-Largest US Mobile Ad Network

Tweet YP issued a press release this morning saying that the company has “over $350 million in advertising revenue [in 2012] attributable to mobile, making it the number two company in the US mobile advertising industry.” IDC is the third party validating the claim in the release. Other facts in the release: YP said that it […]

Think Nationals Will Drive Local-Mobile Ad Spending? Think Again

Tweet As I’ve previously written, there are forecasts arguing the majority of mobile advertising will be dominated by localized campaigns. Make no mistake the “local opportunity” is great and even an imperative for marketers. However, the ad dollars just aren’t there today — and may not materialize for some time. (This quickly leads us into […]

Local Online Ads Grow to $24.5B in 2013

Tweet Borrell Associates has released its 2013 Local Advertising Outlook report. There’s a lot in the document. However for the purposes of this post the headline is: Local online advertising projected to grow 31% from $18.7 billion in 2012 to $24.5 billion in 2013. Borrell estimated the total 2012 US local advertising market (online + offline) […]