Most Analyst Forecasts Are Wrong: The iPhone 8 Edition

Here were some of the headlines, based on financial analyst “checks” and third party data, that came out ahead of Apple’s earnings this week:

  • ‘Anemic’ iPhone 8 demand drags Apple shares lower
  • U.S. buyers favor iPhone 7 over 8: research
  • Don’t Ignore Signs of Tepid iPhone Demand

These gloom and doom stories were picked up and repeated across the internet, partly because some segment of the industry wants to see Apple stumble or is waiting for that and this played into that narrative.

But when Apple announced its fiscal-quarter results they defied and soundly beat market expectations, in part because of these dubious “research” reports about weak iPhone 8 demand.

Apple sold roughly 47 million iPhones during the quarter. Here’s what Apple executives said on the company’s earnings call:

iPhone sales exceeded our expectations. In the last week and a half of September, we began shipping iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus to customers in more than 50 countries. They instantly became our two most popular iPhone models and have been every week since then.

This is another example of why we must take all analyst and third party data forecasts — which are often based on sloppy analysis or thin data — with a grain of salt.

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