BIA: Local Media Revs Will Grow about 2%

MoneyAgainst the backdrop of Pew’s largely negative assessment of the state of the news media (including local newspapers and TV), BIA/Kelsey has put out a new high-level local media forecast. That forecast says that traditional media revenues will decline, while digital media will grow and national/regional advertisers will represent a larger component of revenues.

Local ad revenues will grow from an estimated $132.5 billion in 2012 to $148.8 billion in 2017 — or just over 2%

BIA says national entities “accounted for 32.1 percent or $42.5 billion of the $132.5 billion spent on local media advertising in 2012.” The firm expects national-driven local ad spending to reach $51 billion by 2017.

However a recent CMO Council survey indicates that national advertisers are still mostly at a loss around digital (even offline) localization strategies.

Digital media in the BIA forecast grow from 17.4% in 2012 to 27.6% in 2017. However traditional media local advertising revenues decline from $109.4 billion in 2012 to $107.6 billion in 2017.

How does this sound to you? Do you agree? Do you think any part of it is inflated or undervalues a sector?

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2 Responses to “BIA: Local Media Revs Will Grow about 2%”

  1. Local Painter says at

    Claiming that traditional local advertising revenues will only decline a tiny fraction over the next 4 years seems very unrealistic to me. As the baby boomer business owners retire over the next few years, it is very unlikely that their successors will continue using non-digital advertising techniques.

  2. Greg Sterling says at

    I think that analysis is correct. There’s a great deal of “inertia” around current methods so the time frame of decline is the X variable. But your demographic analysis I agree with. 

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