Earlier this week BIA/Kelsey put out a revised local search forecast. It’s only about PC-based local-search ad revenues and argues they will climb to $8 billion in 2015.
Definitions are a big problem in the local space and not having seen the report it’s not clear what’s contained within the definition of “local search.” I would imagine it includes IYP revenues and geotargeted advertising on search engines. Those were the historical categories covered when I was there.
I recently did an estimate of the size of the local market (not mobile) for someone and came up with the following for the value of the local search/online (PC) market in 2010:
- Local search (IYP and geotargeted search): $4.2 billion approx in 2010. Roughly $2.75 billion of that was Google.
- Local display: Up to $6 billion if online newspaper revenues are included (big problem with definitions here)
- Daily deals/coupons: Worth roughly $2 billion in 2010
Deals illustrate the challenges of definitions in the local space. Are they display? Are they search? They’re not performance based in most cases but can be served in both display and search contexts.
Regardless, it’s easy to get to a very big number for the value of the online local space in 2010 (not counting other forms of marketing such as video, email, etc.) — $12 billion approx.
Borrell’s number for 2010 for the totality of local online advertising is $13.7 billion. The IAB’s total online advertising figure for 2010 was $26 billion.